Reports

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Global Aging and the Outlook for Growth and Stability in the Developing World

Demographic trends have played a decisive role in precipitating many of the great upheavals of history. Global Aging and the Outlook for Growth and Stability in the Developing World argues that by the 2020s they may once again threaten widespread disruption. The issue brief, which is jointly published by the Global Aging Institute (GAI) and the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute (PPI), explores how demographic change will reshape the economic, social, and geopolitical environment over the next few decades. It focuses on the outlook for the developing world, where the impact of global aging is both more complicated and less well understood than in the developed world. While the “demographic transition” now under way in the developing world may ultimately push it toward greater prosperity, stability, and peace, the issue brief warns that the progress is unlikely to be linear. Indeed, from lingering youth bulges in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Greater Middle East to premature aging in China and population implosion in Russia, demographic trends may prove to be every bit as disruptive in this century as they were in the last. 

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Published: Feb 2017

Authors: Richard Jackson


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Meeting Hong Kong's Retirement Challenge

The traditional system of family-centered retirement provision is weakening in Hong Kong, yet adequate government and market substitutes have not yet taken its place.  The result is widespread retirement insecurity.  This issue brief, the first in a new series jointly published by the Global Aging Institute (GAI) and the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute (PPI), discusses the forces that are pushing pension reform to the top of the policy agenda in Hong Kong, evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the Mandatory Provident Fund, Hong Kong’s state pension system, and explores strategies for improving the overall adequacy and sustainability of retirement provision. 

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Published: Sep 2016

Authors: Richard Jackson


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From Challenge to Opportunity:
Wave 2 of the East Asia Retirement Survey

When it comes to retirement, East Asia finds itself at a crossroads. The role of the family in retirement security is receding, but adequate government and market substitutes have not yet taken its place. How well are retirees in East Asia coping with the changes? How prepared are workers for their own future retirement? And what type of retirement system would people actually prefer, if given the choice? From Challenge to Opportunity: Wave 2 of the East Asia Retirement Survey answers these questions and offers new insights into how governments and businesses can help individuals and families across the region better prepare for retirement. The report is based on nationally representative surveys of workers and retirees in ten countries: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

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Published: Sep 2015

Authors: Richard Jackson and Tobias Peter


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East Asia Retirement Survey:
Wave 2 Country Reports

Along with From Challenge to Opportunity, the main project report, the results of Wave 2 of the East Asia Retirement Survey are also published in a series of shorter country reports, one for each of the ten countries surveyed: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The country reports situate each country in the range of East Asian experience and assess how prepared it is to meet its retirement challenge.

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Published: Sep 2015

Authors: Richard Jackson and Tobias Peter


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Global Aging and Retirement Security in Emerging Markets:
Reassessing the Role of Funded Pensions

The developing world’s age waves will be arriving in societies that in many cases have not yet put in place the full social protections of a modern welfare state. This creates an opportunity, but also raises the stakes of retirement reform. On the one hand, today’s emerging markets, most of which are unburdened by large unfunded pension liabilities, have much greater flexibility to design retirement systems that are adapted to the new demographic realities. On the other hand, failure to rise to the challenge could result not just in fiscal stress and economic hardship, but also in a humanitarian aging crisis of immense proportions. Global Aging and Retirement Security in Emerging Markets: Reassessing the Role of Funded Pensions explores the challenge of ensuring the adequacy and sustainability of retirement systems in aging emerging markets, and in particular, the potential advantages of the funded pension model.

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Published: Aug 2015

Authors: Richard Jackson and Keisuke Nakashima



The following reports, most co-authored by GAI President Richard Jackson and GAI Senior Associate Neil Howe, were published by the CSIS Global Aging Initiative, the research and educational program that Richard Jackson directed before founding the Global Aging Institute. They cover a wide range of subjects, from retirement policy to development policy. Together, they constitute a rich and varied resource on the challenge of global aging. They also represent the intellectual foundation on which the Global Aging Institute will build.

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Lessons from Abroad for the U.S. Entitlement Debate

The unsustainable federal budget outlook will inevitably push entitlement reform to the forefront of the national policy debate. As America’s leaders consider reform options, they will have much to learn from the experience of other developed countries, several of which have recently enacted far-reaching overhauls of their state pension systems that greatly reduce the long-term fiscal burden of their aging populations. Lessons from Abroad for the U.S. Entitlement Debate places America’s aging challenge in international perspective, examines the most promising reform initiatives in nine other developed countries, and draws practical lessons for U.S. policymakers.

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Published: Mar 2014

Authors: Richard Jackson


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The Global Aging Preparedness Index, Second Edition

The second edition of The Global Aging Preparedness Index (or GAP Index), released in October 2013, thoroughly updates the first edition to reflect the latest demographic, economic, and policy developments since 2010. The overall design of the GAP Index, however, remains largely unchanged in order to ensure that the two editions are as comparable as possible.

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Published: Oct 2013

Authors: Richard Jackson, Neil Howe, and Tobias Peter


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U.S. Development Policy in an Aging World:
New Challenges and New Priorities for a New Demographic Era

The developing world is in the midst of a sweeping demographic transformation with profound implications for U.S. development policy. In the future, the challenge will no longer be helping countries overcome the obstacles to development posed by high birthrates and rapid population growth, but leveraging the opportunities created by falling birthrates and slowing population growth. U.S. Development Policy in an Aging World: New Challenges and New Priorities for a New Demographic Era discusses how emerging markets can best leverage their “demographic dividends” in order to boost income and wealth while they are still young and growing, as well as how they can prepare for the inevitable aging of their populations that looms just over the horizon. It also explores what the new demographic realities imply for the optimal shape of U.S. development policy in decades to come.

 

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Published: May 2013

Authors: Richard Jackson, Reimar Macaranas and Tobias Peter


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Balancing Tradition and Modernity:
The Future of Retirement in East Asia

As the world’s societies age, governments and businesses are trying to look ahead and anticipate the needs of tomorrow’s growing elderly populations. Nowhere is this more difficult to do than in emerging East Asia, where economic modernization, changing cultural norms, and rapidly aging populations are transforming retirement behavior and expectations. Balancing Tradition and Modernity: The Future of Retirement in East Asia explores the implications of rapid development and rapid aging for retirement policy and planning in the most economically important region of the emerging world. The report is based on nationally representative surveys of workers and retirees conducted in China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan.

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Published: Jul 2012

Authors: Richard Jackson, Neil Howe, and Tobias Peter


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Global Aging and the Future of Emerging Markets

The rich world may be leading the way into humanity’s graying future, but much of the developing world is not far behind. Global Aging and the Future of Emerging Markets assesses the potential impact of the “demographic transition” on economic growth and social and political stability in today’s emerging markets. The report stresses that as birthrates fall and life expectancy rises much of the emerging world is entering a period in which population trends will tend to lean with economic growth. But it also warns that the pace of the transition is highly uneven, that many countries are failing to leverage their favorable demographics, and that rapid development brings risks as well as opportunities. While there is room for optimism, the notion that the developing world is heading linearly toward a new era of greater peace and prosperity is deeply flawed.

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Published: Mar 2011

Authors: Richard Jackson, Keisuke Nakashima, Neil Howe


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China’s Long March to Retirement Reform:
The Graying of the Middle Kingdom Revisited

China stands on the threshold of a stunning demographic transformation. Twenty-five years ago, there were nearly five working-age Chinese for every Chinese elder. Twenty-five years from now, there will be less than two. By then there will be 400 million Chinese aged 60 or older, more than the entire projected population of the United States. China’s Long March to Retirement Reform: The Graying of the Middle Kingdom Revisited examines the economic, social, and geopolitical dimensions of China’s aging challenge. Like The Graying of the Middle Kingdom, the original 2004 study that it expands and updates, the report focuses in particular on the critically important task of building a more adequate and sustainable retirement system. Without far-reaching reform, the rapid aging of China’s population could act as a new multiplier on the stresses of rapid development and modernization. The result could be not just a retirement crisis, but also a broader economic, social and political crisis. 

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Published: Apr 2009

Authors: Keisuke Nakashima, Richard Jackson, Neil Howe


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Latin America’s Aging Challenge:
Demographics and Retirement Policy in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico

When people think of Latin America, they usually picture youthful societies characterized by lofty birthrates, large families, and chronic labor surpluses. Yet by mid-century, several of the region’s largest economies may have older populations than the United States. Latin America’s Aging Challenge: Demographics and Retirement Policy in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico argues that Latin America’s success in meeting its aging challenge will depend as much on putting in place more effective development policies as on building more adequate and sustainable retirement systems. If Latin America fails on either front, the region could face widespread economic hardship and social instability—or even a “humanitarian aging crisis”—when its age waves begin to roll in.

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Published: Mar 2009

Authors: Richard Jackson, Rebecca Strauss, Neil Howe


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The Graying of the Great Powers:
Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century

From the fall of the Roman and the Mayan empires to the colonization of the New World and the youth-driven revolutions of the twentieth century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations, and environmental catastrophes of history. By the 2020s, an ominous new conjuncture of demographic trends may once again threaten widespread disruption. The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century explores how population aging and population decline will constrain the ability of the United States and its traditional developed-country allies to maintain national and global security over the next few decades. It also examines the security implications of demographic trends in the developing world, from “premature aging” in China to population implosion in Russia. While some political scientists argue that the forces of demography are pushing the world toward greater peace and stability, this study concludes that they pose growing geopolitical risks—and that the period of greatest danger lies just over the horizon.

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Published: May 2008

Authors: Richard Jackson, Neil Howe

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The Aging of Korea:
Demographics and Retirement Policy in the Land of the Morning Calm

By 2050, there could be more Koreans turning ninety each year than being born. Quite simply, no other country at a similar stage of development faces an age wave as massive as Korea’s—or as fast approaching. Despite the breathtaking economic growth of recent decades, Korea in many ways remains a traditional society with a traditional understanding of social roles. Workers are expected to retire early from formal employment. The elderly are expected to live with and be supported by their extended families. Women who marry are expected to quit their jobs. Back in the 1960s, Korea set out to transform itself from an impoverished agrarian nation into a world-class economic power—and successfully harnessed its national will and national resources to the task. As The Aging of Korea: Demographics and Retirement Policy in the Land of the Morning Calm explains, confronting its coming age wave will require a transformation that is every bit as profound.

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Published: Mar 2007

Authors: Keisuke Nakashima, Richard Jackson, Neil Howe


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Long-Term Immigration Projection Methods:
Current Practice and How to Improve It

The size and composition of international migration flows will play an increasingly important role in determining the overall demographic and economic outlook for United States and other nations with aging populations. Yet the immigration projection methods employed by leading national and international agencies responsible for making population projections rely on ad-hoc assumptions that are based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology. Long-Term Immigration Projection Methods: Current Practice and How to Improve It assesses the current state of immigration projection practice; explores theoretical insights into and empirical research about what determines international migration flows; and discusses how these insights and research could be used to create a superior projection model. The proposed model is “driver-based,” meaning that immigration would be projected based on observed associations between migration behavior and other conditions, such as multinational trends in population, wages and living standards, trade and capital flows, age distribution, education, urbanization, and market orientation or “globalization.” 

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Published: Jun 2006

Authors: Richard Jackson, Neil Howe


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Building Human Capital in an Aging Mexico

Since 1970 Mexico’s fertility rate has plunged from 6.5 to just 2.2, barely above the replacement level. Meanwhile life expectancy has leapt by fourteen years, from 63 to 77. Together, these two trends will soon lead to a dramatic aging of Mexico’s population. Building Human Capital in an Aging Mexico explores how Mexico’s demographic transformation will reshape its economy and society. The report discusses a wide range of policy responses to Mexico’s aging challenge, from labor market reform to pension reform, but focuses in particular on the imperative of making new and more effective investments in the nation’s human capital. Along the way, it identifies potential demographic and economic synergies between Mexico and the United States that could be leveraged for the benefit of both nations.

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Published: Jul 2005

Authors: Richard Jackson